Housing Supply and Price Adjustment

We analyse two inter-related features of regional housing markets: determinants of new housing supply, and the impact of supply responsiveness on price dynamics. We demonstrate that a suitably specified q-theory model (including residential land values as well as construction costs) explains intended housing starts. Few prior studies have found significant land price effects, due either to their omission or (possibly) to incorrect data definition (use of agricultural rather than residential land values). We examine the interaction of supply responsiveness and price adjustment following demand shocks, using a new panel dataset covering 53 quarters across 73 regions of New Zealand. Regions with high supply responsiveness have relatively small price spikes following demand shocks, consistent with a rational response that limits house price jumps in regions with strong supply responses.Housing supply; q-theory; house price dynamics

Water, Water Somewhere: The Value of Water in a Drought-Prone Farming Region

Water is critical for agriculture, yet surprisingly few studies internationally have analysed the value placed on water in specific farming contexts. We do so using a rich longitudinal dataset for the Mackenzie District (Canterbury, New Zealand) over nineteen years, enabling us to extract the value placed by farmers on long-term access to irrigated water. New Zealand has a system of water consents under the Resource Management Act (RMA) that enables farmers with consents to extract specified quantities of water for agricultural purposes. Some water is extracted through large-scale irrigation infrastructure and other flows by more localised means; the RMA and the water consents themselves are a critical legal infrastructure underpinning farming. Using panel methods, we estimate property sale price and assessed value as a function of the size of the farm's water right (if it has one), farm characteristics, and the water right interacted with farm characteristics to determine how the value of a water consent varies according to local conditions. We find that flatter areas and areas with poorly draining soils benefit most from irrigation, possibly because the water is retained for longer on these properties. Drier areas appear to benefit more from irrigation than do areas with higher rainfall. Farms that are situated close to towns derive especially strong benefits from irrigation since these properties are most likely to have potential water-intensive land uses such as dairying and cropping that require access to processing facilities and/or an urban labour pool.irrigation, hedonics, water supply, New Zealand

What's the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets

We examine the impact of shocks on community outcomes. The shocks that we examine are exogenous economic shocks which occur externally to the local community, and which are hypothesised to impact on the community. By testing the impact of these shocks on community developments, we enrich understanding of what causes communities to develop as they do over time. In particular, we gain a greater understanding of the impact of factors largely or wholly outside the control of local communities which lead to inequality in outcomes between communities. To focus our analysis, we concentrate on the price of houses within each community as the community outcome variable. The local price of houses summarises, in one dimension, a host of tangible and intangible components relating to the community of interest. We use a multivariate panel structure to estimate the long-run and short-run impacts of price, production and demographic variables on real house prices.House prices, commodity prices, regional shocks, adjustment dynamics

What’s the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets

We examine the impact of shocks on community outcomes. The shocks that we examine are exogenous economic shocks which occur externally to the local community, and which are hypothesised to impact on the community. By testing the impact of these shocks on community developments, we enrich understanding of what causes communities to develop as they do over time. In particular, we gain a greater understanding of the impact of factors largely or wholly outside the control of local communities which lead to inequality in outcomes between communities. To focus our analysis, we concentrate on the price of houses within each community as the community outcome variable. The local price of houses summarises, in one dimension, a host of tangible and intangible components relating to the community of interest. We use a multivariate panel structure to estimate the long-run and short-run impacts of price, production and demographic variables on real house prices.House prices, commodity prices, regional shocks, adjustment dynamics

House Prices and Rents: Socio-Economic Impacts and Prospects

We use New Zealand property data at the area unit (suburb) level to examine implied prospects for communities over time, and test whether these derived prospects have explanatory power relating to actual future outcomes. We also use the data to analyse whether disadvantaged communities face particular problems in relation to rental markets. Our results indicate that: capital gains and rental growth expectations historically have appeared reasonable in that they have not been suggestive of asset bubbles or other fad behaviour; derived capital gains and rental growth expectations have explanatory power both over actual future capital gains and actual future rental growth; and lower socio-economic areas face higher rental yields even after controlling for non-socio-economic factors than do high socio-economic areas.House prices; house rents; rental yields; capital gains; community prospects

Novel 3d bosonic dualities from bosonization and holography

We use 3d bosonization dualities to derive new non-supersymmetric dualities between bosonic quiver theories in $2+1$ dimensions. It is shown that such dualities are a natural non-Abelian generalization of the bosonic particle-vortex duality. A special case of such dualities is applicable to Chern-Simons theories living on interfaces in $3+1$ dimensional $SU(N)$ Yang-Mills theory across which the theta angle jumps. We also analyze such interfaces in a holographic construction which provides further evidence for novel dualities between quiver gauge theories and gauge theories with adjoint scalars. These conjectured dualities pass some stringent consistency tests.Comment: 33+11 pages, 6 figures. v2: fixed minor typo

Regional Variation in Rental Costsfor Larger Households

Housing costs comprise a major part of most household budgets. Larger households require greater space than do smaller households but do not necessarily have larger incomes. The cost of extra housing space (e.g. the cost of an extra bedroom) may vary across different locations, both absolutely (dollars per week) and proportionately (percentage of overall costs). If this is the case, differential regional costs of additional space may provide an incentive for different sized households to locate in particular areas where housing costs most appropriately fit their needs. Our analysis uses tenancy bond rental data to analyse the cost of renting an extra bedroom in different locations throughout New Zealand. It discusses the theory of what determines rents. We then examine the nature of regional rental costs, testing whether the documented patterns fit with theoretical predictions. Finally, we reflect on what the results may imply for social outcomes and housing policy in New Zealand. To give a flavour of the issues, consider the following. In 2003, the average weekly rental cost of a two bedroom dwelling in Auckland was $37 more than for a one bedroom dwelling. The cost of a third bedroom was an extra$50 and the cost of a fourth bedroom was an additional $90. Thus weekly rental cost for a four bedroom dwelling exceeded that of a one bedroom dwelling by$177. In Manawatu-Wanganui, the cost of a two bedroom dwelling was $38 more than for a one bedroom dwelling - almost identical to the margin in Auckland. But the cost of additional bedrooms was much lower than in Auckland:$29 for a third bedroom and $33 for a fourth bedroom. This raw data might suggest that it would be beneficial for larger households to locate in Manawatu-Wanganui and for smaller households to locate in Auckland. However, the interaction with other factors has to be taken into account before such a conclusion can be reached. At the minimum, the data suggests there is a material issue to be addressed relating to disparities in regional housing costs for different sized households.House Rents; Deprivation; Regional Disparities

Land Taxes and Revenue Needs as Communities Grow and Decline: Evidence from New Zealand

New Zealand is unusual in that nearly 60% of local services are funded from property taxes. These are a mixture of land taxes, capital value taxes, annual rental value taxes and uniform general charges. We explore the efficiency and equity of this system at both national and local levels. We find that the national property tax base is large relative to spending needs but that the variance in per capita tax bases across territorial local authorities is probably greater than is efficient or equitable. We find that land taxes are more progressive than capital value taxes. Our research also addresses local authorities' ability to provide services as their property tax base changes as a result of external economic shocks. We consider the occurrence of and responses to "fiscal stress" in a system of local government that is heavily dependent on property taxation. We provide some examples of the wide range of actual responses by local councils faced with similar population changes. Finally, we offer some tentative conclusions and implications both for New Zealand local public finance and for the use of property taxes, and particularly land taxes, more broadly.New Zealand, local government, property taxes, land taxes

Regional Variation in Rental Costs for Larger Households

Housing costs comprise a major part of most household budgets. Larger households require greater space than do smaller households but do not necessarily have larger incomes. The cost of extra housing space (e.g. the cost of an extra bedroom) may vary across different locations, both absolutely (dollars per week) and proportionately (percentage of overall costs). If this is the case, differential regional costs of additional space may provide an incentive for different sized households to locate in particular areas where housing costs most appropriately fit their needs. Our analysis uses tenancy bond rental data to analyse the cost of renting an extra bedroom in different locations throughout New Zealand. It discusses the theory of what determines rents. We then examine the nature of regional rental costs, testing whether the documented patterns fit with theoretical predictions. Finally, we reflect on what the results may imply for social outcomes and housing policy in New Zealand. To give a flavour of the issues, consider the following. In 2003, the average weekly rental cost of a two bedroom dwelling in Auckland was $37 more than for a one bedroom dwelling. The cost of a third bedroom was an extra$50 and the cost of a fourth bedroom was an additional $90. Thus weekly rental cost for a four bedroom dwelling exceeded that of a one bedroom dwelling by$177. In Manawatu-Wanganui, the cost of a two bedroom dwelling was $38 more than for a one bedroom dwelling - almost identical to the margin in Auckland. But the cost of additional bedrooms was much lower than in Auckland:$29 for a third bedroom and $33 for a fourth bedroom. This raw data might suggest that it would be beneficial for larger households to locate in Manawatu-Wanganui and for smaller households to locate in Auckland. However, the interaction with other factors has to be taken into account before such a conclusion can be reached. At the minimum, the data suggests there is a material issue to be addressed relating to disparities in regional housing costs for different sized households.House Rents; Deprivation; Regional Disparities

House Price Efficiency: Expectations, Sales, Symmetry

An efficient housing market is of critical importance for individual welfare and for a well-functioning economy. We test the efficiency of this market by estimating the factors that determine both the long-run and the dynamic paths of regional house prices. Our tests use a new quarterly regional panel data set covering the 14 regions of New Zealand from 1981 to 2002. The tests indicate that regional housing markets converge to an equilibrium consistent with consumer optimising conditions, and hence with long-run efficiency. However, some conditions required for short-run (dynamic) efficiency are violated. We find that extrapolative price expectations, based on past regional phenomena, lead to overshooting of house prices in response to new region-specific information. We also find that price dynamics are influenced by past regional house sales activity and that the dynamic adjustment process is asymmetric depending on whether house prices are above or below their long-run equilibrium.House prices; housing appreciation; housing market; adjustment dynamics